Ferrari-Mercedes renew battle in Barcelona; Red Bull in frame as one of favourites
Barcelona, 10 May 2018: Four rounds ticked off the Formula 1 calendar, and this season has certainly kept us on the edge of our seats. We’ve had two triumphs for Ferrari, and one apiece for Red Bull and Mercedes. So, who has the momentum as we head to Europe for the Spanish Grand Prix?
It’s very hard to say indeed. Last time out, Baku provided us with a chaotic and thrilling race with Ferrari looking on course for a third win of the campaign before the Red Bull collision set off a chain of events that ultimately conspired to hand Mercedes their first victory of 2018.
The Silver Arrows still trail their rivals in red by four points in the constructors’ standings, but Lewis Hamilton’s latest triumph – his first of the season – gave him the lead ahead of Sebastian Vettel in the drivers’ championship after four races this season, the Briton having waited until after round 13 to move ahead last year.
Mercedes have locked out the front row in Barcelona in four of the past five years, but their qualifying prowess has already been questioned this year – Azerbaijan was the third race in a row they have missed out on P1.
But as we’ve seen already this season, it won’t just be about Mercedes and Ferrari this weekend. In fact, perhaps most of the attention will be on Red Bull, following the clash between Daniel Ricciardo and Max Verstappen in Azerbaijan.
They have now suffered two double DNFs in the past three races, having previously not suffered one at all since the 2010 Korean GP – and after being read the riot act, their drivers will be desperate to avoid more contact in Spain.
Barcelona is a track all the teams know extremely well – but who will come out on top?
The form book
Looking at the stats, Mercedes have every reason to be confident on their return to Barcelona. This track has arguably been a demonstration of their dominance in the turbo hybrid era.
In 2014, they locked out the front row with no other car within one second of pole. In 2015, this gap dropped to 0.777s, then 0.680s in 2016, before Vettel narrowed it to 0.051s last year and became the first non-Mercedes to start on the front row here since 2012.
The qualifying stats suggest the winner will need to come up with the goods on the Saturday. Twenty-four of the 27 Grands Prix in Catalunya have been won from the front row (89 per cent), the highest ratio of any circuit on the calendar with at least 10 previous races, such is the difficulty of overtaking at the Spanish venue.
Over the last decade, though, we have seen plenty of different drivers triumph, including shock victories for Pastor Maldonado in 2012 and Max Verstappen – on his Red Bull debut – in 2016. Hamilton’s victory last year ended a run of 10 different winners in the same number years in Spain, but could we see another new winner this year? Neither Ricciardo nor Bottas has triumphed here, but both have been in terrific form.
This is a race where, traditionally, the teams bring significant upgrades to their cars, so whilst no one is expecting the established top three to be toppled, in the supremely tight midfield there could be movement. McLaren, in the midst of a tight battle for P4 in the constructors’ championship with Renault, are one of the teams bringing significant revisions.
Both teams have Spanish drivers, but it’s Renault’s Carlos Sainz who has the better recent record at Barcelona, finishing the last three races in ninth, sixth and seventh. Alonso, meanwhile, hasn’t scored points at home since 2014 when he was still driving for Ferrari.
Elsewhere, several teams will be looking to carry momentum into Spain. Force India’s surprise podium in Baku, with Sergio Perez landing P3, kick-started their season, while Toro Rosso were boosted by Brendon Hartley’s first points-finish last time out.
Sauber’s Charles Leclerc also scored points for the first time, while Williams got their 2018 campaign underway with Lance Stroll scoring four points for P8.
Source: Formula1.com
