Part II: Hamilton, the Last Dance
New Delhi, 2 February 2024: In the words of famous TV presenter Jeremy Clarkson, “And on that Bombshell”, Sir Lewis Hamilton has kickstarted the 2024 Formula 1 season with the announcement that he will be driving for Ferrari from 2025 onwards. This is the biggest driver transfer in Formula 1, since Hamilton himself announced he would leave McLaren for Mercedes in 2013, sending shockwaves throughout the paddock.
Part II (You can read Part I here)
The Ferrari Element
John Elkann, Stellantis and Ferrari Chairman has said to have a key role in persuading Hamilton to join the Scuderia. Vasseur already being the Team Principal means Hamilton already has people at Ferrari that he trusts. Further, a marriage between arguably the greatest driver in Formula 1 and the greatest team in Formula 1 is too enticing. When the opportunity came Ferrari jumped at signing the Briton. Just the magnitude of this announcement is a commercial dream. It also coincides with Sainz’s contract finishing at the end of 2024 and Leclerc signing a multi-year deal to continue with Ferrari.
Sweeping power unit and technical regulations give a clean sheet where Ferrari could be best placed to capitalise and leap forward of the field. This is what attracted Hamilton to join them. 2025 would be a season where he can bed in and 2026 go all out for the title. Ferrari have not won a drivers’ championship since 2007 and constructors’ championship since 2008. If Hamilton can get one or both, that too with Ferrari his status will undoubtedly be cemented as the greatest.
One could say it is a match made in heaven as both have the immense hunger to not only win again but get their dominant glory days back, especially for Ferrari as it has been long overdue. Since the Maranello squad last won, it has been plagued by mismanagement, bad strategy calls, dirty politics and mediocre engineering given the facilities they have. This is concurred by the failure of great drivers like Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso’s inability to win a title with them. Ferrari’s motivation to bring Hamilton would be to get these processes right. It has already started with Vasseur in charge and bringing positive changes in the technical departments. There is no doubt in Hamilton’s abilities, give him a car and he will deliver. Hamilton is being brought in to push and extract the best out of every single team member. His experience and knowledge will be invaluable to the team. The onus is on Ferrari then to help Hamilton and themselves to reach the summit.
Lastly, there is Sainz who is out of contract after 2024 and will not continue with Ferrari. For the Italian squad it is a no brainer, if a driver of Hamilton’s stature is available, they will make him a priority. Sainz was able to match Leclerc throughout his time at Ferrari but was never clearly faster than the Monegasque. Leclerc is the Scuderia’s golden boy but remains to be seen how the dynamic will evolve once Hamilton is there in 2025. Make no mistake Sainz is immensely talented and will land a drive for 2025 somewhere, Mercedes being one of the options. The Spaniard has been heavily linked with Stake F1 team Kick Sauber, which will be rebranded as Audi in 2026. Remains to be seen what plans Sainz has.
The Conundrum facing Mercedes
Mercedes and specifically Toto Wolff have been caught off guard by this bombshell news. Wolff said that he got to know about the news only a day before and that before going in the winter break Mercedes and Hamilton’s ambitions were aligned. Turns out the contract Hamilton signed was a 1+1 year contract which had an exit clause at the end of the first year, which Hamilton used.
A week ago, the future at Mercedes looked very different with Hamilton and George Russell embedded to bring Mercedes to the front again. That is all up in the air as Hamilton has decided agree terms with Ferrari for his future. With Hamilton being there, the team had a clear direction for development which now might be out of the window. This might backtrack Mercedes’ plans to get to the front in the short term.
This agreement between Hamilton and Ferrari has a twofold impact on the German squad. Firstly, Hamilton is still part of Mercedes for 2024. This means that Hamilton will be excluded from certain parts of the team which plan their long-term development. On track strategy and planning will also be affected by this somewhat. Wolff has commented that both drivers will be treated equally throughout the season but clearly Russell is the future for the Silver Arrows. It is a positive situation for Russell as he becomes the de facto leader of the team once Hamilton departs. Secondly, this announcement means Mercedes have to look for a driver to fill their vacant seat. Mercedes is not the formidable team they used tobe; their seat was the most coveted till 2021. Still, they are one of the big names in Formula 1 and a works team so drivers would undoubtedly want to sign for them.
There are multiple candidates for this seat. Sainz will be out of contract and could technically swap with Hamilton. But Mercedes have already been hurt by their man leaving for Ferrari and hence, they may not want Sainz as he is a former Ferrari man. They may look towards Fernando Alonso, but he may not be the right choice for long term future in the eyes of Mercedes. Alex Albon of Williams is a sound choice considering he gets along with Russell and has shown that he can be consistent. Further vacating the Williams seat means Mercedes young driver Andrea Kimi Antonelli could be placed in the Williams who share a good working relationship with Mercedes. Antonelli will be in F2 for 2024, and depending on his performances could make the jump to F1 in 2025. Esteban Ocon is another name that comes to mind as he is managed Gwen Lagrue, Mercedes’ Driver Development Advisor. Factors against Ocon might be that he was beaten by fellow Frenchman Pierre Gasly in their first season as teammates. Daniel Ricciardo is another name linked with Mercedes in the past but there are questions if Mercedes would want him due to his age and whether he would be willing to leave the Red Bull family a second time.Drivers such as Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri have already signed long term deals with McLaren. Max Verstappen would not move as he is long term contracted to Red Bull and is in the fastest car on the grid currently.
If Mercedes move in too quickly for a driver, they may end up losing an opportunity to sign a driver of a higher caliber later. Make their move too late and all their targets may be locked down to their respective teams.
Hamilton and Ferrari will be hoping for a fruitful outcome of their union from 2025 onwards whereas Mercedes will be hoping to get their new driver and development cards right for the future.
